My ramble for today...

(The evil) WalMart offered a Toshiba HD-DVD player for $100 US as part of its pre-"Black Friday" promotion.  Is that because there are a billion players lying around in shipping containers, or because they want to be in the HD-DVD business and blow away Blu-Ray?  Or is it because we get Chinese products for nothing over here?

Microsoft attaches HD-DVD to X-Box and Sony has Blu-Ray with Playstation 3.  I cannot imagine a scenario where the 2 formats will co-exist, when the fortunes of mega-companies depend on their having a winner and a loser.  We call it "screwing the pooch" over here.

There was an article New York Times today discussing how the Eagles did their new release via Wal-Mart and their own website, only.  The Eagles make more money this way, are the #1 release of the year to date, and have bypassed the major record companies.  A long way from when Pearl Jam refused to work with Ticketmaster in the US, and became a second-rate band (in the eyes of America) overnight.

My guess is that the entertainment distribution and technology rules are changing very fast, and the longer it takes to decide a DVD format winner, the more likely broadband streaming will win the video war.  And iTunes won't even be a player.  It will be WalMart and their ilk. I think I am going to be sick. 

Ray 

my two cents,

the format war had better get moving. i get more and more of my hd content in electronic (and even streaming) format. if the majors don't get things decided, the business model could change to bypass the physical media altogether !

- scott

 

Greg:

HD-DVD players are being sold for ever cheaper, and the HD-DVD group is having to pay studios (the small minority of major studios that aren't part of the blu-ray group) for a limited period (note: these are not HD-DVD only for good) of exclusivity on new releases - looks to me like blu-ray has already won. YMMV, of course.

I'd say that's a short-sighted take on what's happening. I have no prejudice for either format, and think the entire HD-war is absurd. But if you look at which format is experiencing the strongest development in sales internationally then that's HD-DVD, precisely because they have lowered the price of the playback units. The fact that they are also investing in exclusive contracts with program providers is actually a strength, not a weakness ...

PS3 gave BR a boost in numbers, but source disk sales are going in HD-DVD's favor.

I'm waiting for a good combination player - a couple of interesting candidates are in the pipeline now, from Samsung and LG. I got very, very frustrated with a Pioneer BR I had for a month until I gave it up - lousy functionality and interminable waits when inserting discs. 

OK, look, I don't want to get into the Blu-ray vs HDDVD thing - I don't have a vested interest either way - the last thing needed here is another version of the whole mac vs PC thing (although for the record, mac is better, of course).

But I *have* to correct you on the 'disc sales are going in HD-DVD's favor' comment. I don't know which country or store you're talking about but worldwide disk sales in 2007 to date Blu-ray disks have outsold HDDVD titles by some margin. A quick google will confirm, e.g.

@Greg

I don't care either way, Greg. I'm very happy with the quality of my upscaled DVDs - though I do enjoy the higher quality sound of the HD disc formats.
But there's a lot of misinformation from either side in the so called "war."

The threadstarter linked to a statistic that's worth taking a look at. BLU-RAY in the first column, HD-DVD in the second:

As a manufacturer in China of BR and HDDVD I think we should not look at historic sales. Its what is happening now that matters and will these formats ever become mainstream?? - if they dont the whole HD thing is not a war- its a memory!! HD is a bit of a con and the public realise it! with upscaled dvd offering very similar performance and a HUGE title offering- why bother with HD with its very limited offering, products out of date from the moment they are released and a picture quality which in many instances is no better than the former!

The problem is quite complex- on the one hand price drops of HDDVD have recently been announced of up to 30% and worldwide sales are now more in the favour of HDDVD than blue ray but comparing to dvd sales the whole HD thing is a loser. Just look at the titles available from rental companies for example-  HDDVD offering is huge by comparison to BR

Blue ray is more complex and allows for so many more possibilities  particularly with audio- which is the next big step; interestingly many who are advocates of BR state they have no interest in sound formats and yet this is the very reason why manufacturers bothered with BR in the first place. Manufacturers  research indicates that the average Joe doesnt care about HD audio and how long will the manufacturers provide firmware updates to prior models in order that the new discs can play and can average Joe do this?? I can tell you one major brand is already about to pull the plug on this service- leaving buyers high and dry.

We now have profile 1.1 players comming onto the market making all blue ray players  obsolete; and now 20th century Fox is developing master HD audio for BR  which NO player can play- even with the new profile! so the public is expected to buy into the  half completed technological mess gthat is Blue Ray and whilst I would not put money on it I think its far more likely that blue ray will collapse as a format than HDD and in the not to distant future- no manufacturer is making money from this!

Now we have a further mess developing- dual format- where the player will not be particualrly good at either format- smasung cant make a decent blue ray yet alone a dual format!

In the end its about price- for flat screen we had  SED which was  far superior to LCD and better than plasma in so many ways- and yet the manufactuers have thrown in the towel as the price of lcd which is  a very cheap technology to produce tumbles to the point where it is not economic to invest in another technology